AGP Executive Report

Road & Logistics: China Railway 18th Bureau completed the first phase of National Road No. 12 in Anosy (about 45 km, five bridges), aiming to ease long-standing transport bottlenecks in southeastern Madagascar. Mining & Industry Recovery: Ambatovy resumed nickel and cobalt production after Cyclone Gezani, restarting its sulfuric acid plant and HPAL circuits with a push toward stable run rates by end-June. Agribusiness & Trade: Russia resumed wheat shipments to Madagascar, sending over 30,000 tonnes worth more than $7m in the first five months of 2026. Energy Access: Women solar technicians, trained through Barefoot College with WWF support, are expanding rural electricity access—reported as reaching 165 of 210 households in one village. Renewables Concept: A “Baobab Waterfall” deep-ocean power concept proposes renewable electricity generation off Madagascar using a baobab-inspired floating structure. Food Prices Watch: S&P Global warns emerging markets may see inflation shift from fuel to food as fertiliser and transport costs rise. Vanilla Market: The global vanilla outlook remains fragile amid oversupply, with Madagascar still facing severe hardship despite recent tax and tariff changes.

Vanilla Market Shock: Global vanilla prices remain at inflation-adjusted historic lows after overproduction, with Madagascar still lacking a coordinated plan to cushion northeastern growers from the downturn. Mining Restart After Cyclone: Ambatovy has resumed nickel and cobalt production in Toamasina after Cyclone Gezani damage, bringing its sulfuric acid plant and HPAL circuits back online and aiming for steadier 2026 runs by late June. Energy Access Skills: Women solar technicians supported by Barefoot College are expanding rural electricity access in Madagascar, with one village reporting major household electrification gains. Food Supply Signal: Russia has resumed wheat shipments to Madagascar, with over 30,000 tonnes reported in the first five months of 2026, worth more than $7m. EU Trade Deal: The EU and ESA states including Madagascar concluded negotiations on an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming for more predictable services and investment rules. Critical Minerals Strategy: A new push links graphite and fluorspar supply planning across India, Madagascar and the US as Western demand grows. Electricity Cost Context: A global ranking highlights how electricity prices vary widely, underscoring the pressure on fuel-importing and infrastructure-stressed economies.

Mining & Recovery: Ambatovy in Toamasina has restarted nickel and cobalt production after Cyclone Gezani, bringing its sulfuric acid plant and HPAL circuits back online and aiming for stable run rates by end-June. Energy Access: Women solar technicians in Madagascar are expanding rural electricity via the Barefoot College programme, with one village reporting 165 of 210 households electrified. Agribusiness & Trade: Russia has resumed wheat supplies to Madagascar, shipping over 30,000 tonnes worth $7m in the first five months of 2026. Food Prices & Inflation: S&P Global warns emerging markets may see inflation shift from fuel to food as fertiliser and transport costs rise amid supply-chain strain. Renewables Concept: A “Baobab Waterfall” ocean-powered design proposes large-scale renewable electricity off Madagascar’s coast. Policy & Industry Finance: AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee to support commerce and production. Critical Minerals Strategy: Evion is pushing graphite and fluorspar as part of an ex-China critical minerals push, with a Madagascar link in its wider plan. Skills & Livelihoods: Research highlights biodiversity value chains (including Madagascar forest-based enterprises) as a route to rural jobs and climate-resilient incomes. Biodiversity & Conservation: Madagascar-linked black-and-white ruffed lemurs are highlighted in zoo conservation updates, underscoring habitat pressure and illegal hunting risks.

Nickel & cobalt restart: Ambatovy in Madagascar has resumed nickel and cobalt production after Cyclone Gezani damage, bringing its sulfuric acid plant and HPAL circuits back online and targeting stable run rates by end-June. Renewables concept: A “Baobab Waterfall” floating ocean-powered project is pitched for Madagascar’s coast, aiming to turn energy shortages into large-scale renewable electricity. Solar jobs: Women solar technicians, trained via Barefoot College with WWF support, are expanding rural electricity access across Madagascar—boosting household power in one village to nearly 79%. Trade & investment: The EU and ESA states including Madagascar concluded talks on an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, designed to deepen services and investment links. Food supply: Russia resumed wheat shipments to Madagascar, sending over 30,000 tonnes worth $7m in the first five months of 2026. Critical minerals strategy: Evion’s graphite and fluorspar push links Madagascar into an ex-China critical minerals plan, while Mozambique’s new mining law signals wider regional moves toward local processing. Energy security context: A study warns emerging markets may see inflation shift from fuel to food as fertiliser and transport costs rise.

Entrepreneurship & Climate: Africa’s Business Heroes (Jack Ma Foundation/Alibaba Philanthropy) named its 2026 Top 100 entrepreneurs from 24,000+ applications across 54 countries, with Madagascar among the participating markets and sectors ranging from AI and agriculture to climate innovation. Energy Access: Women solar technicians in Madagascar are expanding rural electricity access through the Barefoot College National Programme, with one village reporting 165 of 210 households now connected. Food & Inflation Risk: S&P Global warns food prices could become the main inflation driver in emerging markets as fertilizer costs rise and supply-chain disruptions feed through to staples. Agri Trade: Russia has resumed wheat supplies to Madagascar, shipping 30,000+ tonnes worth $7m in the first five months of 2026. Critical Minerals Strategy: Evion is pushing graphite and fluorspar as twin pillars of an ex-China critical minerals plan, with a Madagascar-linked push to secure Western supply. Mining Policy Watch: Mozambique tightens mining with a 15% state stake and local processing rules—an approach that could ripple across the region’s battery-material supply chains. Biodiversity & Livelihoods: Researchers highlight how biodiversity value chains (including forest-based enterprises in Madagascar) could strengthen rural incomes if investment targets conservation-linked markets.

Russia–Madagascar Trade: Russia has resumed wheat supplies to Madagascar, shipping over 30,000 tonnes worth more than $7m in the first five months of 2026, after near-zero exports in 2025. Regional Trade & Integration: The EU and Eastern and Southern Africa states (including Madagascar) concluded an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming for more predictable rules and growth via services and digitalisation. Mining & Critical Minerals: Evion is pushing a “graphite and fluorspar” strategy across India, Madagascar and the US, targeting Western off-take and funding channels. Energy & Cost Pressures: S&P Global warns food prices may become the main inflation driver in emerging markets as fertiliser costs rise and global supply-chain disruptions feed through. Agriculture & Food Security: A Southern Africa rural women’s policy dialogue calls for women smallholder farmers to lead food and climate policy, with Madagascar among participating countries. Conservation & Local Livelihoods: Research highlights how biodiversity value chains (including in Madagascar) could strengthen rural incomes if investments back forest-based enterprises. Security & Industry: Russia also sent additional military engineering equipment to Madagascar, including mobile power plants and vehicles, supporting re-equipment efforts.

Food Security & Trade: Russia resumed wheat supplies to Madagascar, shipping over 30,000 tonnes worth more than $7m in the first five months of 2026, after near-zero exports in 2025. Agriculture Policy: A Southern Africa rural women’s group urged governments to put women smallholder farmers at the center of food and climate policy, citing rising poverty, food insecurity and climate shocks across the region, including Madagascar. EU Market Access: The EU and ESA states (including Madagascar) concluded talks on an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement in Mauritius, aiming for more predictable rules, services and digitalisation, and deeper regional integration. Mining & Industry Strategy: Evion is pushing an “ex-China” critical minerals plan, positioning graphite and fluorspar as key pillars, with a three-pronged push across India, Madagascar and the US. Energy/Commodities Pressure: S&P Global warned that emerging-market inflation risks may shift from fuel to food as fertiliser costs feed into higher food prices, with African economies likely hit hardest. Security & Logistics: Russia reportedly sent additional military engineering hardware to Madagascar, including vehicles and mobile power plants, as bilateral defence ties deepen. Biodiversity & Livelihoods: Researchers highlighted how biodiversity value chains—such as forest-based enterprises in Madagascar—could strengthen rural jobs and incomes if investment targets governance and market links. Conservation Spotlight: A critically endangered Madagascar lemur family was welcomed at the Buffalo Zoo, underscoring habitat loss and illegal hunting pressures.

Women Farmers Call: Southern Africa’s Rural Women’s Assembly urged governments to put women smallholder farmers at the center of food and climate policy, saying they already hold practical solutions for resilient food systems, with Madagascar among participating countries. EU Trade Deal: The EU and ESA states (including Madagascar) concluded negotiations on an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming for more predictable rules and new opportunities in services and digitalisation. Critical Minerals Push: Evion is positioning graphite and fluorspar as “twin pillars” for an ex-China critical minerals strategy, with plans spanning India, Madagascar and the US. Nickel Supply Shock: A nickel market recovery outlook is being dampened by production disruptions, including Madagascar’s Ambatovy mine being suspended after cyclone damage. Conservation Enterprise: A conservation program using Madagascar’s native silk-producing caterpillars is highlighted as a model for rural livelihoods that has shifted to local leadership. Agroecology Scaling: The AERAS agroecology initiative says over 10,000 small-scale farmers across Africa and Latin America gained advisory support and new practices to strengthen resilient food systems. Russia Aid for Recovery: Russia transferred vehicles and mobile power plants to Madagascar for cyclone recovery, targeting debris clearing, temporary access roads and water purification.

Nickel Supply Shock for Madagascar’s Industry: A key nickel supply thread is under strain as Madagascar’s Ambatovy mine is reported suspended after cyclone damage, adding pressure to global refined nickel stocks and raising questions for downstream metal and battery-linked production. Russia–Madagascar Recovery Support: Russia has delivered additional military engineering equipment and mobile power and water purification units to help cyclone-hit areas, with the gear earmarked for debris clearing, temporary roads, and restoring critical services. Trade Finance for Local Industry: AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee, a move aimed at easing credit for importers and exporters and supporting industrial supply chains. Biodiversity Value Chains for Rural Jobs: Researchers say forest-based biodiversity value chains—highlighting Madagascar among case studies—could strengthen rural livelihoods if investments focus on market access and governance that turns policy into on-the-ground enterprise. Agriculture Tech Partnerships: A China–Africa hybrid rice cooperation story underscores how better seed and agricultural systems can improve yields and reduce food insecurity—relevant to Madagascar’s agri-industry push. Shipping Risk Signals: A Madagascar-flagged tanker (Marivex) was disabled after a US action near Oman, spotlighting how geopolitical tensions can disrupt maritime logistics that Madagascar-linked shipping relies on. Mining Governance Watch: While focused on Mozambique, new rules on state stakes and local processing reflect a wider regional trend that could shape how Madagascar’s own mining investors plan value-add.

Trade Finance Boost: AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee facility for BMOI, aiming to speed up industrialisation and help local firms import production inputs. Cyclone Recovery Equipment: Russia transferred tracked bulldozers, loaders, cranes, mobile power stations and water purification units to Madagascar for emergency works after Cyclones Fytia and Gezani, including debris clearing and restoring transport links. Shipping & Compliance Risk: US forces disabled the tanker MT Marivex in the Gulf of Oman after it tried to run toward Iran; the vessel was linked to a Madagascar flag claim, and 24 Indian crew were rescued safely. Agroecology Support: AERAS expanded agroecology advisory services to 10,000+ small farmers across Africa and Latin America, with Madagascar included among target countries. Biosecurity Warning: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal exotic cockroaches, including Madagascar hissing cockroaches, from a breeder—highlighting ongoing trafficking risks for Malagasy species. Energy/Industry Diplomacy: Nigeria’s Tinubu met Madagascar President Randrianirina in Abuja, with talks reportedly touching agriculture, climate resilience and regional security.

Shipping & Sanctions: A Madagascar-flagged tanker, MT Marivex, was hit and disabled in the Gulf of Oman after alleged blockade violations; 24 Indian crew were evacuated safely with Omani help, while India said there was some communication with the US Navy before the incident. Mining & Industrial Finance: AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee for BMOI to speed industrial inputs and support local firms. Nickel Sector Update: Sumitomo is financing buyers of its 54% Ambatovy stake to smooth its exit from a loss-making project; production is set to resume after cyclone damage. Graphite Strategy: Total Graphite launched a Madagascar portfolio optimisation programme to accelerate development and unlock value across its assets. Disaster Recovery: Russia transferred tracked and mobile equipment, power units and water purification systems to Madagascar for cyclone recovery work. Biosecurity & Trade Risks: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal exotic cockroaches tied to Madagascar hissing species, underscoring how wildlife trafficking can disrupt legitimate trade and compliance.

AfDB Trade Finance for Industry: The AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee facility aimed at accelerating industrialisation and helping local firms import production inputs. Mining & Investment Reshuffle: Sumitomo is financing the exit of its 54% stake in Ambatovy, with production suspended since February and due to resume by end-June, while Total Graphite launched a Madagascar graphite portfolio optimisation programme to speed development and unlock value. Energy Market Pressure: India’s OMCs still face heavy losses despite fuel price hikes, with daily strain continuing from elevated global energy costs—an indirect reminder of how volatile supply routes can hit industrial inputs. Shipping Safety & Sanctions Risk: A Madagascar-flagged tanker, MT Marivex, caught fire off Oman with 24 Indian crew safe; separate reports link the vessel to sanctions and blockade-evasion attempts, underscoring compliance and maritime security risks for trade. Fragrance Supply Chain: Lautier 1795 (Symrise) is relaunching natural raw materials trading and highlighting Madagascar ingredients like Longoza Oil and Bay Oil for the fragrance industry.

Trade Finance Boost: AfDB approved a $20m Madagascar trade finance guarantee facility aimed at accelerating industrialisation and helping local firms import production inputs. Mining Dealmaking: Reuters reports Sumitomo is financing the buyers of its 54% Ambatovy nickel stake to smooth its exit, with production suspended since February and due to resume by end-June. Graphite Strategy: Total Graphite says it has started a Madagascar graphite portfolio optimisation programme, weighing partners, joint ventures, divestments or asset sales to unlock value. Shipping & Sanctions Risk: A fire on the Madagascar-flagged tanker MT Marivex off Oman involved 24 Indian seafarers; India says all were safe, while US forces later disabled a Palau-flagged sanctioned vessel linked to blockade-violation attempts. Bilateral Diplomacy: Nigeria’s Tinubu met Madagascar President Michael Randrianirina in Abuja for talks expected to cover trade, agriculture, security and climate resilience. Energy Costs Pressure (India): India’s OMCs are still losing about Rs 600–700 crore daily despite fuel price hikes, highlighting how global oil shocks ripple into supply chains. Madagascar Ingredient Spotlight: Lautier 1795 (Symrise) says it’s relaunching natural raw materials trading and will commercialise Madagascar-linked fragrance inputs like Longoza Oil Madagascar and Bay Oil Madagascar by year-end. Biosecurity (Madagascar Species): Australia seized 100,000+ illegal cockroaches including Madagascar hissing species in a record raid, warning of penalties for breeders and pet sellers.

Rare-earth supply chain: A Utah mill (White Mesa) is pushing to become a rare-earth processing hub by 2027, aiming to cut U.S. dependence on China, where roughly 90% of processed rare earths come from. Financial oversight: Central African banking supervisors met in Yaounde to stress stronger regulation for emerging risks, including digital fraud, stablecoins, AI, cyber and climate threats. Forest pressure from household energy: New research warns that charcoal and fuelwood still dominate cooking across Madagascar and other African countries, but weak regulation and rising urban demand are accelerating forest loss and health harms. Governance gaps in forestry: Another study finds policy frameworks exist in Ethiopia, Cameroon, Kenya and Madagascar, yet implementation is uneven and fragmented, undermining biodiversity and climate goals. Regional connectivity: Ethiopian Airlines will launch direct flights to Port Louis from July 12, improving trade and tourism links across the region. Madagascar IP & AI: Madagascar’s copyright authorities warn that AI-generated songs, cloned voices and altered recordings are being used without permission, raising legal and cultural preservation concerns. Biosecurity & wildlife trade: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal cockroaches from a breeder, including Madagascar hissing cockroaches, highlighting risks from non-native species and the growing exotic pet supply chain.

Aviation & Trade Links: Ethiopian Airlines will launch a new three-times-weekly direct route to Port Louis, Mauritius from July 12, cutting travel friction via hubs like Antananarivo and boosting tourism and regional business ties. Energy & Environment: Two new studies warn that Africa’s heavy reliance on charcoal and fuelwood is accelerating forest loss and health risks, while policy coordination gaps (including in Madagascar) leave implementation fragmented despite strong national frameworks. Madagascar Creative Industry: Madagascar’s music sector is pushing back as AI-generated songs, cloned voices, and altered recordings spread without authorization, with copyright officials urging artists to use legal protections and report infringements. Biosecurity & Illicit Trade: Australia seized more than 100,000 illegal exotic cockroaches from a Bathurst breeder, including Madagascar hissing cockroaches, warning the pet trade could threaten native wildlife and agriculture.

Wildlife & Biosecurity: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal live cockroaches from a Bathurst breeder, including Madagascar hissing cockroaches, in what officials call the country’s biggest exotic invertebrate bust (about $142,000). Authorities say the species can’t be legally imported, kept, bred or sold, warning of disease and harm to native wildlife and agriculture; the insects are set to be euthanized and penalties are possible. Creative Industries & IP: Madagascar’s copyright authorities are pushing back on AI-generated music, warning that cloned voices and altered recordings are being used without permission, raising legal and ethical concerns for artists and broadcasters. Mining & Industrial Policy: Mozambique signed new mining rules requiring a minimum 15% free, non-dilutable state stake in all mining projects and tighter controls on exporting raw minerals, with local processing prioritized—part of a wider push for value addition. Regional Trade & Finance: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi to lead Southern Africa operations, covering Madagascar among other markets, as the bank expands trade finance and project support.